Members of the group recently took part in the 141st European Study Group with Industry (ESGI), held at UCD in June. We were part of the team working on the problem posed by ESB-Trading (Electricity Supply Board). With the upcoming launch of I-SEM, ESB-Trading have increased interest in accurate prediction of output from their wind farm portfolio.
They provided output for a number of their wind farms for 2016 and 2017, and also forecast data from a third party. We analysed the accuracy of the forecast using standard skill scores and also looked at the influence of wind direction on forecast accuracy. We also employed some Linear-Least Squares (LLS) post-processing to try to improve the forecasts.
We worked alongside a group from Politecnico di Milano, who used their expertise in functional data analysis to study the data.
At the end of the week, a presentation was made to ESB and other participants and a report was also produced (which should be published shortly).