Probabilistic Skill Scores

Assessments of the skill of probabilistic forecast models utilize various skil scores. Those range from being scalar scores, to visual graphs that express scores according to different forecasting conditions (e.g. extreme events’ probability of occurrence).

Attached is a summary document that briefly describes, explains and showcases some of the most common probabilistic skill scores used in climate, meteorology and weather-dependent renewable energy forecasting. This document includes:

  • Introduction to Skill Scores
  • The Generic Form of a Skill Score
  • Reliability Diagram
  • Sharpness Diagram
  • ROC Diagram (also called ROC curve)

Probabilistic Skill Scores

Hope you enjoy!